Open Gambia’s analysis examines the recent interview on West Coast Radio’s Coffee Time with Peter Gomes, in which the Deputy Permanent Secretary (DPS) of the Ministry of Trade, Abdoulie Jammeh, addressed the ongoing bread crisis between the National Bakers’ Union (NBU) and the Government. The NBU is pushing for a 30% price increase, raising the cost of a loaf of bread from D10 to D13, citing the need to remain competitive against domestic flour mills.
The interview shed light on the government’s role in the crisis and provided insight into how the NBU has manoeuvred to control flour imports. Additionally, we consulted sources within the local flour industry to offer a balanced analysis of the evolving situation.
Rising Costs and Government Intervention
DPS Jammeh acknowledged that, since 2019, the cost of flour and other baking ingredients has steadily risen. A bag of flour that once cost D1,145 now sells for nearly D2,000, influenced by multiple factors: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, fuel price hikes, inflation, and increased forex exchange rates. These elements have contributed to the sharp rise in production costs.
The government introduced a temporary six-month intervention to mitigate this, incentivising two local flour mills to import bulk. This measure aimed to reduce transaction costs, stabilise the market, and keep the price of bread at D10. However, its effectiveness remains debatable.
The Government-NBU Agreement and Disputed Quality Claims
During the interview, DPS Jammeh explained that the government allowed the NBU to import premium flour through intermediaries to stabilise prices. As part of this agreement, in October 2024, the government reduced import duties on flour from 47% to 20% to facilitate these imports. The rationale was that locally processed flour allegedly did not meet premium quality standards, necessitating the blending of imported flour.
However, representatives from the domestic milling industry strongly dispute these claims, asserting that their flour meets high industrial standards. The Food Safety and Quality Authority has been tasked with verifying these allegations, raising questions about why the government allowed these claims to influence policy without a prior investigation.
The NBU’s Attempt to Leverage Price Increases
In January 2025, the NBU imported 3,000 tons of flour. They then demanded that the government either waive excise duty and stamp duty on their imports or approve a 30% increase in bread prices to pass these additional costs onto consumers. DPS Jammeh characterised this move as an attempt to hold the government hostage. The NBU has since halted the price hike, leading to ongoing negotiations.
Domestic Flour Mills vs. Imported Flour
The domestic flour mills, which continue paying complete duties, can still supply flour at a price that allows bakers to maintain bread prices at D10. In contrast, the NBU’s demand for tax exemptions or higher bread prices contradicts the terms of their agreement with the government. DPS Jammeh emphasised that the MOU between the state and the NBU never included a stamp duty waiver, further undermining the union’s justification for the increase.
Government Failures and the Danger of a Flour Cartel
From the information gathered in this interview, two key government failures emerge:
Short-Term Intervention Without Long-Term Solutions: While the government aimed to keep bread prices low, it has not guaranteed a sufficient supply or quality. The short-term measure may be counterproductive, as consumers are getting less quality for their money while underlying problems remain unaddressed, i.e. reliable flour supply and affordable prices.
Creating a Market Cartel:
The government unintentionally created a cartel by allowing the NBU to import flour through intermediaries and control bakers. This has given the NBU disproportionate leverage, enabling them to manipulate the market and exclude domestic flour producers. Such a structure leaves the country vulnerable to price manipulation and supply disruptions, as seen in past bread crises worldwide.
Instead of leveraging this situation to promote agricultural self-sufficiency, the government has failed to develop policies encouraging domestic wheat and grain production. A correctly implemented agricultural program could have linked local farmers with flour mills, creating a sustainable value chain that benefits the economy and reduces reliance on imports. Five years have passed since 2019—ample time to establish such a strategy.
Double Standards in Government Policy
The government’s handling of flour imports starkly contrasts with its approach to the cement industry. In the case of Jai Oil and Cement Importers, the state discouraged bagged cement imports in favour of bulk imports and local rebagging, claiming this would empower the local industry. Why is the same logic not being applied to flour milling? Why is the government not prioritising domestic milling facilities over importers, who stand to benefit from market manipulation?
Conclusion: A Missed Opportunity for Economic Growth
The flour crisis highlights the government’s failure to seize the opportunity to develop a sustainable agricultural industry. Instead of investing in local production and ensuring food security, policymakers have allowed the nation to remain dependent on imports—ultimately enriching a select few while ordinary Gambians struggle to make ends meet.
As Plato’s Republic states: “Our need will be the real creator.” Jowett’s 1894 translation said, “The true creator is necessity, the mother of our invention.” The time for invention is now. The government must break this cycle of dependency and prioritise long-term agricultural development over short-term, reactionary policies.
Until then, the average Gambian will continue to pay the price for government incompetence.
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