President Umaro Sissoco Embalo has said he’s not running for a second term, but he continues to delay elections that could potentially succeed him.
Guinea Bissau’s President Umaro Sissoco Embalo has just wrapped up an official visit to Azerbaijan, days after he was hosted at the Kremlin by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Embalo’s visits, highlighted by comments on strengthening diplomatic relations, occur under the dark cloud of a tense political environment at home.
After postponing the general elections scheduled for last November, Embalo’s government announced Nov. 30, 2025, as the new date. However, opposition parties have stated that the latest date falls well beyond the date Embalo is meant to vacate office, although a recent Supreme Court ruling extended the president’s time in office.
On Feb. 27, 2020, Embalo held a swearing-in ceremony after results were announced that he defeated Domingos Simoes of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) in a second-round runoff. The PAIGC, which had ruled Guinea-Bissau since gaining independence in 1974, alleged that irregularities and initiated court proceedings marred the electoral process. Amidst the uncertainty, Embalo, a former army general, was sworn in, even as PAIGC termed his entry into office a coup.
Guinea-Bissau has been long plagued by political instability, defined by a succession of coups. The 2019 elections were meant to show that a peaceful power transition could take place in its nascent democracy. So far, Embalo hasn’t brought about stability or improved the country’s political situation, having dissolved parliament twice, and he’s been ruling by decree for over a year now.
On taking office, armed guards patrolled ministry officers and intimidated former Prime Minister Aristides Gomes to get him to resign. Cipriano Cassamá, who lawmakers chose as interim president pending the supreme court’s ruling, resigned after one day, citing threats to his life.
In 2022, Embalo dissolved parliament and arrested many opposition politicians, citing an attempted coup. According to reports, this dissolution was caused by parliament refusing to lift the immunity of several government officials, including Simoes, Embalo’s opponent, at the last presidential election. Six months after a coalition led by PAIGC won an absolute majority at the parliamentary polls, Embalo again shut down the legislature in late 2023, citing another attempted coup following clashes between National Guard members and the Presidential Guard’s special forces.
Guinea-Bissau runs a semi-presidential system, with significant powers vested in its legislature. Observers believe Embalo seeks to implement constitutional changes that would increase presidential power, which dealt the 2023 legislative elections a considerable blow. However, Embalo has said he doesn’t plan on running for reelection.
Currently, the path to credible elections in Guinea-Bissau is marred by the alleged undue influence of Embalo and his government on institutions like the electoral commission and the Supreme Court. In 2023, José Pedro Sambu resigned as the Supreme Court’s president, while six judges are currently subject to disciplinary proceedings.Earlier this month, the Supreme Court ruled that Embalo’s term lasts till Sep. 4, 2025, stating that it ruled on the election result dispute on that date in 2020. Still, the November election date would keep Embalo in office beyond the Supreme Court’s date. The opposition has vowed to paralyze the country’s economic activities through strikes and protests until the election dates are brought forward.
