As The Gambia prepares for its presidential election on 5 December 2026, opposition parties face a difficult road to unseat President Adama Barrow, who is seeking a third term despite concerns over democratic norms and stalled constitutional reform.
Barrow’s bid for another five-year mandate has sparked debate across Gambian politics. Elected in 2016 as a transition figure following decades of authoritarian rule under former president Yahya Jammeh, Barrow initially pledged only to serve a short transitional period and champion constitutional reforms including term limits. Those reforms have repeatedly failed to clear the National Assembly, leaving the 1997 constitution in force and allowing him to run again — a move critics describe as contrary to the spirit of democratic consolidation.
For the opposition, unseating Barrow requires addressing several structural and strategic challenges:
1. Unite Behind a Single Candidate
Fragmentation has long handicapped the opposition. In previous elections, multiple candidates split anti-incumbent votes, enabling Barrow to win under the current first-past-the-post system. National sentiment and recent polls indicate that forming a united coalition and rallying behind one strong contender may offer the best path to victory.*
2. Focus on Clear Policy Alternatives
Many Gambians, especially youth — who make up a large share of the electorate — prioritise issues such as unemployment, access to basic services, and cost of living pressures. Opposition parties must articulate credible, concrete policy platforms that address daily hardships rather than merely opposing Barrow’s tenure. Economic messaging rooted in tangible solutions could widen appeal beyond traditional party bases.
3. Engage Grassroots and Diaspora Voters
Mobilising grassroots support across regions — particularly in rural communities outside the capital — remains pivotal. Additionally, although diaspora voting has not yet been fully implemented, advocating for and facilitating participation of Gambians abroad could expand the opposition’s support base if it becomes available.*
4. Leverage Civil Society and Media
Civil society organisations and independent media have expanded space for public debate since 2017. The opposition can harness these platforms to boost visibility, articulate alternative visions, and hold the government accountable on issues like transparency and service delivery.
5. Counter Incumbency Advantages
As president and leader of the National People’s Party, Barrow wields institutional advantages. Opposition parties must strengthen internal organisation, invest in voter outreach, and cultivate a professional campaign apparatus capable of competing nationwide.
Ultimately, a coherent coalition strategy, a compelling alternative narrative, and sustained voter engagement could determine whether The Gambia experiences a leadership change in December — or re-elects an incumbent who once promised to end entrenched rule but now seeks prolonged tenure.
